Will solar panel prices drop 40% this year?

Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, speaks to pv magazine about the current steep trajectory of solar module prices. He estimates that PV panels prices will end up dropping by 40% this year and predicts the closure of old technology and sub-scale solar manufacturing facilities, both in China and globally.

Why are China's solar panels so expensive?

China accounts for 80% of solar module production capacity after years of subsidies, driving oversupply that has triggered a collapse in global prices and provoked import duties from trading partners to stave off being swamped by low-cost equipment.

Are Chinese solar panels cheaper than US solar panels?

Oversupply pushed prices of finished solar panels in China down 42% in 2023, making Chinese panels more than 60% cheaper than U.S.-made equipment, with some module-only manufacturers taking orders at negative margins to preserve market share, said Wood Mackenzie analyst Huaiyan Sun.

Why are solar panels so expensive?

During the covid-19 pandemic the price of solar modules spiked owing to a shortfall in the supply of polysilicon. Since then, however, the global price has fallen to a record low of less than 10 cents per watt, according to PV Insights, a data provider (see chart 1).

Will a sustained increase in solar component prices happen in 2024?

"As supply is still set to outpace demand in 2024 a sustained increase in component prices is unlikely to happen unless supported by policy changes", such as reforms to bidding for solar components that keep sales prices above input costs, said Rystad's Bakke. China has yet to announce plans for any such changes.

Will China's crowded solar power sector keep global prices low?

BEIJING, April 3 (Reuters) - Consolidation in China's crowded solar power sector is pushing smaller players out of the market, but excess production capacity - with more on the way - threatens to keep global prices low for years.